Thursday, October 13, 2011

Is it true that inventory in Naples is down, even back to levels not seen since the "boom"?

Earlier this week, The Samuel Team at John R. Wood had the benefit of having a meeting with a very well respected appraiser in town (Cindy Carroll of Caroll and Caroll).  She shared with us her market statistics for Naples, broken out by neighborhood.  We meet with her every year and her findings this year were quite different from her findings last year.  It's important to share this information with you because there has been so much buzz out there about where the Naples real estate market is going.  We think that sometimes our clients don't believe us when we say it's getting better or when we tell them that the steals they have seen in previous years are going, going….gone.
During the "crash" we saw inventory levels in some Naples neighborhoods jump to over SEVEN years of inventory.  The inventory was far outweighing the sales.  Using the easily understood concept of "supply and demand," it did not take a rocket scientist to know that those neighborhoods would see a decline in price until the inventory stabilized.

There are some neighborhoods (very few) that still have an oversupply of inventory (nowhere near the seven years level), however our more popular neighborhoods (the ones that are driven by proximity to the beach or downtown; the ones that are popular due to the school districts that they feed into; or the ones that are popular due to their lower price points) have become balanced and many are seeing a shortage in inventory.  Last time we had a shortage in inventory was during the real estate boom of 2005.  We all remember what happened to prices during that time - they soared. 

While we are not expecting to see a spike in prices, we are already seeing homes in these popular neighborhoods starting to sell at a higher price per square foot than they were selling at last year.  We are seeing fewer short sales and fewer foreclosed homes.  The shadow inventory of bank owned homes is still just that - a shadow.  If and when these homes get introduced to the market, the likelihood that they will be in the popular neighborhoods is slim.

 We are sharing this information to keep you educated on our market.  Many of our clients from last year were simply too nervous to purchase at the time.  They wanted to see how things played out over the past year.  Our inventory levels are a good indication of how things are playing out.  The low prices coupled with the unprecedented interest rates have indeed created the perfect buying storm, and people are buying!

If you are looking in our more popular neighborhoods,  our advice is do not let another season go by for you while you sit on the sidelines evaluating the market.  If you would like to own a home in Naples, this is the time to buy it.

If you would like to see what Is on the market in your preferred neighborhoods, give us a call.  We are happy to send you an updated listing of homes that would work for your needs.

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